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Market Outlook as of 8:35 AM CDT 08.13.2014:
Wheat is up 2-5 cents, little fresh news, global stocks weigh on futures but Ukrainian drama works to push prices a little higher today (Mpls Sept last trade 6.11 ¼, KC Sept 6.16)
Soybeans are mixed, long term trend is likely lower but overnight trade saw a breather after the November contract hit new lows yesterday (Nov last trade 10.52 ¼)
Corn is unchanged, futures are slightly higher this morning after hitting contract lows yesterday the market is wondering if corn futures have found their bottom for now (Sept last trade 3.58 ¾)
Sunflowers are unchanged, bean oil action is fairly quiet today, indicating that sunflower prices may not do much today either
Canola is unchanged, futures are slightly higher but with the soybean complex bouncing around it could be tough for canola to hang onto gains
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For now it seems that the futures markets have already digested yesterday’s USDA reports and they’re now focusing on the next thing. In general, the marketplace seems to be disregarding the USDA’s lower than expected yield estimates for this year’s US crop and assuming that upward revisions will have to take place in future reports. Any gains today will be limited by large global supply expectations. Tensions in Ukraine seem to be providing wheat with some strength but the corn and soybean markets are struggling to trade higher despite contract lows found in yesterday’s session. The US dollar is higher this morning and crude prices are about a dime/barrel lower.
There is not a lot of news to help out wheat prices this morning but they’re trading higher anyway. The USDA increased the size of the US crop yesterday and reported a record global crop, which resulted in prices finishing lower yesterday. Ukrainian uncertainty seems to be providing the support this morning as there is really little else to give prices a boost at the moment. To me it seems like the general trend for wheat is steady/lower but today’s action seems more like a “dead cat bounce” after trading lower yesterday.
The November soybean contract hit new lows yesterday and tried to bounce back in overnight trade but is giving back those gains and then some to start off the day session. The USDA increased yields only slightly in yesterday’s report, not by near what the market expected to see. Chinese demand is pretty strong as they have booked several new crop purchases, which could be supportive for prices. However, I’m hearing estimates of futures prices dropping below the $10 mark, which would put our cash prices below $9 for new crop. Dryness in North Dakota, Minnesota and Iowa is generating some concern about soybean conditions.
Corn futures also saw new contract lows yesterday which had the market hoping that futures had reached their bottom for the time being. However, that does not seem to be the case as futures are lower again today. Yesterday the USDA did not increase yield even close to what the market estimated, which sent futures a bit higher. Many believe that we will see upward yield revisions in future USDA reports for the US corn crop, and I cannot say that I disagree with that.
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These comments are for informational purposes only and are taken from sources that we believe to be reliable. However, it is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. SunPrairie Grain basis its recommendations on the judgment of its personnel.